finance-business · personal-finance · social-security-pensions

Pension Lump Sum Vs Annuity Calculator

Values a pension offered as a monthly payment against a lump sum alternative by discounting the payments at the return you believe you could earn on the cash, including any annual increase and a survivor benefit. It reports which is worth more today and the discount rate at which the two are equal, and it says so plainly when the pension is worth less than the lump sum at every non-negative return, because then no such rate exists.

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Decision Canvas

Calculator overview

Inputs and outputs

This summary comes from the calculator's published input and output contract.

Inputs

Annual COLA (required)
About this input

The annual pension increase, expressed as a percentage. Enter 0% for a level pension, which is what most private schemes offer.

Unit fraction Default 0 Range 0 to 0.15
Discount Rate (required)
About this input

The return you believe you could earn on the lump sum if you took it. It is the single input that decides the comparison, which is why the break-even rate is reported beside the answer.

Unit fraction Default 0.05 Range 0 to 0.25
Lump Sum Offer (required)
About this input

The one-off cash payment offered in place of the pension.

Unit currency Default 500000 Range At least 0
Monthly Pension (required)
About this input

The monthly pension you would receive instead, before tax.

Unit currency/month Default 3000 Range At least 0
Survivor Percentage
When omitted Blank
About this input

Optional. The share of the pension that continues to a survivor after the main term. Leave both survivor cells blank for a single-life pension, which is genuinely different from a survivor benefit of zero.

Unit fraction Default Not set Range 0 to 1
Survivor Years
When omitted Blank
About this input

Optional. How many further years the survivor benefit would be paid after the main term ends.

Unit years Default Not set Range 0 to 50
Years Of Payments (required)
About this input

How many years the pension would be paid. This is a planning assumption, not a lifetime: no mortality is modelled, and living longer than this favours the pension.

Unit years Default 25 Range 1 to 50

Outputs

Advantage Of Lump Sum
About this output

The lump sum less the pension's present value. Positive means the cash is worth more today on your assumptions.

Unit currency
Annual Pension
About this output

Twelve monthly payments, the figure the present value is built from.

Unit currency/yr
Better Option
About this output

Which is worth more today, stated in words, with the discount rate it depends on.

No unit declared
Break Even Discount Rate
About this output

The return you would have to earn on the lump sum for the two to be worth the same. Earn more than this and the cash wins; earn less and the pension does. It is the honest way to read this decision, because it does not require you to be right about the return.

Unit fraction
Break Even Year
About this output

The year in which cumulative payments first equal the lump sum, undiscounted. It is a much-quoted figure and a misleading one, because it credits a payment in twenty years the same as one today.

Unit years
Model Status
About this output

Reads OK, or explains why the inputs are not valid or why the answer deserves a second look.

No unit declared
Payout Rate Of Lump Sum
About this output

The annual pension as a share of the lump sum offered, which is the quickest way to compare one offer against another.

Unit fraction
Pension Present Value
About this output

What the whole pension, including any survivor benefit, is worth today at your discount rate. Compare it directly against the lump sum.

Unit currency
Survivor Leg Value
About this output

How much of that value comes from the survivor benefit. Blank until you enter a survivor share.

Unit currency
Total Undiscounted
About this output

Everything the pension would pay over the whole term, ignoring the time value of money entirely.

Unit currency
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Methodology

Purpose and model boundary

Use this calculator to compare a pension income stream with a lump-sum offer. It converts the pension, any annual increase and any survivor payments to a present value, then shows which option is worth more under your assumptions and the discount rate at which they are equal.

This is a present-value comparison, not a recommendation. It does not model mortality, pension-plan funding or credit risk, insurance protection, taxes, or the investments you would choose after taking a lump sum.

Inputs and units

Input Unit Accepted range What it means
Survivor Percentage percentage 0–100% Optional. The percentage of the pension that continues to a survivor after the main term. Leave both survivor inputs blank for a single-life pension, which is different from specifying a zero survivor benefit.
Survivor Years years 0 to 50 Optional. How many further years the survivor benefit would be paid after the main term ends.
Years Of Payments years 1 to 50 How many years the pension would be paid. This is a planning assumption, not a lifetime: no mortality is modelled, and living longer than this favours the pension.
Monthly Pension $/month 0 or more The monthly pension you would receive instead, before tax.
Annual COLA percentage 0–15% The annual percentage increase in the pension. Enter 0% for a level pension.
Discount Rate percentage 0–25% The annual return you believe you could earn on the lump sum. It strongly affects the comparison, so the break-even rate is reported beside the answer.
Lump Sum Offer $ 0 or more The one-off cash payment offered in place of the pension.

Governing relationships

For annual pension amount A, escalation g, discount rate r and term n, present value is A (1 - ((1 + g)/(1 + r))^n) / (r - g). When r equals g, the calculator uses the limiting value A n / (1 + r) instead of dividing by zero. A survivor benefit is valued with the same relationship and discounted back across the main pension term. The break-even discount rate is found by repeatedly narrowing the rate interval until pension present value equals the lump sum.

Calculation sequence

  1. Read the monthly pension, the number of years of payments, any escalation, the survivor share and survivor years, the lump sum offered and the discount rate.
  2. Annualise the monthly pension and discount the main payment stream at the discount rate, using the escalating form when an escalation is given and the limiting form when the escalation equals the discount rate.
  3. Value the survivor leg on the survivor share over the survivor years, then discount it back across the main payment period.
  4. Add the two legs to get the present value of the pension.
  5. Subtract the lump sum to get the advantage, and report which option is worth more.
  6. Solve for the discount rate at which the present value equals the lump sum, by bisection between zero and one hundred percent.
  7. Evaluate the status in the order given below.

Outputs and interpretation

The headline figures are Advantage Of Lump Sum, Better Option and Break Even Discount Rate. Everything else is supporting detail for those.

Output Role Unit What it means
Advantage Of Lump Sum headline $ The lump sum less the pension's present value. Positive means the cash is worth more today on your assumptions.
Better Option headline Which is worth more today, stated in words, with the discount rate it depends on.
Break Even Discount Rate headline percentage The annual return at which the lump sum and pension have the same present value. Above it the lump sum is worth more on these assumptions; below it the pension is.
Payout Rate Of Lump Sum detail percentage Annual pension as a percentage of the lump sum offered, useful for comparing offers.
Pension Present Value detail $ What the whole pension, including any survivor benefit, is worth today at your discount rate. Compare it directly against the lump sum.
Total Undiscounted detail $ Everything the pension would pay over the whole term, ignoring the time value of money entirely.
Survivor Leg Value detail $ How much of that value comes from the survivor benefit. Blank until you enter a survivor share.
Annual Pension detail $/year Twelve monthly payments, the figure the present value is built from.
Break Even Year detail years The year in which cumulative payments first equal the lump sum, undiscounted. It is a much-quoted figure and a misleading one, because it credits a payment in twenty years the same as one today.

Validation and status logic

The workbook evaluates status in this order, and the first condition that is true wins. The status text below is the exact wording the workbook returns; angle brackets mark a value substituted into the message at calculation time.

Condition Returned status
Lump Sum Offer <= 0 NOT VALID: there is no lump sum to compare against
Monthly Pension <= 0 NOT VALID: there is no pension to value
Years Of Payments < 1 NOT VALID: the pension has to be paid for at least a year
Discount Rate < 0 NOT VALID: the return you could earn cannot be negative
Annual COLA < 0 NOT VALID: the pension increase cannot be negative
AND(Survivor Percentage <> "",Survivor years, coalesced <= 0) CHECK: a survivor share is given but no survivor years, so the survivor benefit is worth nothing
Is there a break-even inside the bracket? = 0 CHECK: the pension is worth less than the lump sum at every non-negative return, so there is no break-even rate to report
Annual COLA >= Discount Rate CHECK: the pension rises at least as fast as the return you could earn, which makes the pension very hard to beat
None of the preceding conditions applies OK

Assumptions and limitations

  • The discount rate is the return you believe you could earn on the lump sum. The comparison is only as good as that assumption.
  • Payments are certain for the stated number of years. Mortality is not modelled, so a pension is neither shortened by death nor lengthened by longevity.
  • Scheme solvency, any insurance guarantee, and the tax treatment of either option are outside the model.
  • The survivor benefit is a fixed share paid for a fixed number of years after the main payment period ends.

Restrictions and non-computing states

The monthly pension and the lump sum must both be greater than zero, because the comparison needs two sides. The years of payments must be at least one. The discount rate, escalation, survivor share and survivor years are held within their published ranges. Where the pension is worth less than the lump sum at every non-negative rate there is no break-even rate to report, and the workbook says so rather than returning a misleading number.

Errors and warnings

A rejected entry means a value fell outside the published input rules, and no calculation was attempted. Workbook NOT VALID means the model ran and could not produce a meaningful answer, so the results are withheld. Workbook CHECK means the numbers stand but a condition is worth reading before you rely on them. A connection or calculation-service failure is an availability problem, not a finding of any kind, and never means zero.

References

The present-value and break-even relationships are standard financial mathematics and are documented with a worked derivation in the delivered audit. General context on the tax treatment of pension and annuity income is available from the Internal Revenue Service in Publication 575, Pension and Annuity Income. The workbook does not reproduce a statutory table, a mortality table, or any scheme's terms.

This model is arithmetic. It is not financial, tax, investment or retirement advice, and it is not a recommendation to save, invest, withdraw, claim or accept any amount. Decisions about retirement funding should be taken with a qualified professional who knows your circumstances.

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