Subscription Pricing & Unit Economics Simulator

Purpose and model boundary

This calculator projects a subscription business month by month. You enter up to 3 plans, each billed monthly or annually in advance, an opening base of subscribers, and new subscribers in up to 12 months. Over 1 to 24 months subscribers renew: a monthly plan every month, an annual plan once a year at its contract anniversary. At each renewal a share stays, a share moves to another plan of the same billing type, and a share leaves.

One Calculate fills every result section of that one model: the plan, the unit economics by cohort, the subscribers, 100 simulated scenarios and an 11 by 11 what-if table of operating result by price multiplier and churn multiplier.

Price and churn are not linked here. A higher price does not make more subscribers leave unless you say so, so the table shows both directions and you judge how far along it you would land. The calculator claims no best price. Every figure on this page is computed by the spreadsheet; the page adds nothing to it. Every value is your own assumption.

Inputs and units

• Months in the horizon, from 1 to 24.
• Renewal month of opening annual contracts, from 1 to 12 (blank means 1). Your opening annual subscribers have already paid for their current contract. Before this month they bring revenue but no cash.
• Fixed cost a month, from 0 to 1,000,000,000 in whole cents (blank means 0).
• Plans, up to 3 rows, filled from the top without a blank row between used rows: a plan ID, which is a capital letter and then up to 15 capital letters or digits, each ID used once; Monthly or Annual billing; the monthly price, from 0 to 10,000 in whole cents (on an annual plan this is the list price before the annual discount); the annual discount, from 0% to 100%, required on an annual plan and blank or 0 on a monthly plan; opening subscribers, 0 or from 0.01 to 1,000,000; and the share of new subscribers, from 0% to 100%. The used rows' shares add up to 100% whenever any new subscribers are entered. Subscriber counts are expected values, so fractions are allowed.
• At each renewal, one row for each plan row, labelled Plan row 1 to Plan row 3. Each share is a typed percent: the share going to each plan row and the churn. The cell of the row's own plan is the share that stays. Each used row adds up to 100%, and churn is required (blank is not 0). A monthly plan's churn is per month, and an annual plan's is per renewal. A share above 0 between a monthly and an annual plan is not accepted in this version.
• New subscribers by month, one row for each of months 1 to 12, which may all be blank: new subscribers, 0 or from 0.01 to 100,000, and acquisition spend, from 0 to 1,000,000,000 in whole cents. A month may be blank above a used month. A month after the horizon must stay blank.
• Usage costs, up to 5 rows, which may be empty: a category ID in the same form as a plan ID, the cost per unit from 0 to 10,000, and units a month per subscriber on each plan row, from 0 to 1,000,000. Cost per unit times units is at most 10,000 in every cell, and a column of an empty plan row must be blank.
• What-if table: a price multiplier and a churn multiplier, each from 0 to 5 (1 unless you change it), and the spacing of the table's rows and columns, above 0 up to 0.5.
• Optional, under "Optional: discounting, target and risk":
  • the discount rate for LTV, from 0% to 100% a year (blank means 0);
  • the target operating result, in whole cents (blank means no target, and the share of trials reaching it stays empty);
  • the new subscribers multiplier, low, most likely and high, each from 0 to 5 and in that order. These three are required and come filled in, with 0.8, 1 and 1.2 unless you change them. Set all three the same to switch this variation off;
  • churn scenarios, up to 5 rows, which may be empty: a scenario ID, a churn multiplier from 0 to 5 and a weight, with the weights adding up to 100%. These rows are sent even while the section is closed. With none, there is one scenario called BASE, with multiplier 1 and weight 100%;
  • the random seed, from 1 to 2,147,483,646 (blank means 42).

Money is in dollars. Percentages are shares of subscribers or of a price.

Governing relationships

Renewals. New subscribers join at the start of their month and bill for that month. A subscriber on a monthly plan renews at the start of every later month; opening monthly subscribers renew at the start of month 1. A subscriber on an annual plan renews at each anniversary: a new subscriber 12 months after joining, an opening one at the renewal month you enter and then every 12 months. At a renewal a subscriber stays, moves or leaves before that month's billing. Between renewals an annual subscriber does not change, so a cancellation during a contract takes effect as not renewing, and there are no refunds.

Revenue and cash. A monthly plan recognizes and bills the same amount each month. An annual plan's monthly amount is the price times (1 minus the discount), times the contracts billed in that month, rounded once to the cent. The bill is 12 times that amount, and that amount is recognized in each of the next 12 months, so a finished contract leaves exactly 0 deferred. There are no receivables: a bill counts as collected in its month.

Deferred balance. The balance starts with the months already paid for by opening annual contracts, then each month adds the cash billed and takes away the revenue recognized.

Costs and results. Usage cost follows active subscribers. For each plan, category and month it is subscribers times cost per unit times units, rounded once to the cent. Acquisition spend is charged in the month it is spent, and the fixed cost in every month.

• Contribution is recognized revenue less usage cost.
• Operating result is contribution less acquisition spend and fixed cost.
• Net cash is cash billed less usage cost, acquisition spend and fixed cost.
• Peak cash need is the deepest point of cumulative net cash, shown as a positive amount, with its first month.

Price multiplier. It multiplies every plan's price on every bill from month 1. Contracts prepaid before month 1 keep their price until they renew.

Churn multiplier. It multiplies every plan's churn, up to 100%. The stay and move shares shrink or grow in proportion, so each row still adds up to 100%. A plan with no stay or move share stays at 100% churn under any multiplier.

Cohort economics. Each acquisition month is a cohort, followed from its first month to the end of the horizon.

• CAC is the month's spend divided by its new subscribers.
• LTV is the contribution one new subscriber makes within the horizon, split by the shares of new subscribers. It is never a perpetuity. When a discount rate is entered, contribution one year after joining counts 1 / (1 + rate) as much.
• Payback is the first month of the subscriber's life, 1 being the first, when the running best of its cumulative contribution reaches CAC. It is not discounted. A cohort that does not get there within the horizon reads "not reached".
• Later cohorts have fewer months in the horizon, so a lower LTV does not mean worse subscribers.

The blended CAC and LTV are weighted by new subscribers. Cohort figures are rounded once for display, so a column's total can differ from the month table by a few cents.

Simulation. Each of the 100 trials draws one new-subscriber multiplier from your low, most likely and high (a triangular distribution), for every month, and one churn scenario by its weight, for every month. Spend stays as entered, because the money is spent either way, and plan prices stay fixed. A trial then computes the operating result and ending subscribers exactly at that multiplier and scenario. The same seed and inputs give the same 100 trials, and each Calculate moves on to the next seed. A trial's operating result is not rounded line by line, so a trial with no variation can differ from the plan by a few cents.

What-if table. Rows are 11 price multipliers centred on yours, one row step apart; columns are 11 churn multipliers centred on yours, one column step apart. Each cell is the operating result recalculated by an Excel Data Table. The middle cell is the plan itself. It covers the plan only, not the simulation.

Calculation sequence

The spreadsheet first checks every plan, renewal row, acquisition month, usage row, scenario and setting, and stops with NOT VALID at the first problem it finds, with every figure at 0. It then works out each plan's renewal shares and monthly revenue per subscriber, runs subscribers month by month, posts revenue, cash and usage to the cent, adds up the month table, and works out the cohort table. It then runs the simulation and the what-if table.

Outputs and interpretation

The headline gives the operating result, cash billed and the simulated mean operating result. The result sections follow.

• Plan: revenue recognized, usage cost, contribution and its margin, acquisition spend, fixed cost, net cash, the deferred balance at the start and the end, revenue in the last month and the peak cash need; with the month table, the results by plan and the usage cost by category.
• Unit economics: the blended CAC and LTV and their ratio, the first cohort with spend and its payback (blank when it does not pay back within the horizon; the table says "not reached"), how many cohorts do not pay back, and how many opening subscribers are still active at the end; with the table by cohort.
• Subscribers: opening, new, lost and ending subscribers and the average monthly churn; with the month table. On an annual plan churn falls only in its renewal months.
• Risk: 100 simulated scenarios: the median, 10th and 90th percentile, lowest and highest operating result; the share of trials with a loss and the share reaching your target, each with its standard error; subscribers at the end; the means of the first and last 50 trials, whose gap shows how far 100 trials can wander; the seed; and the trials for each churn scenario. Each share is a count out of 100, so 20% means 20 of 100 trials. 0 of 100 does not mean zero risk.

Percentiles from 100 trials are illustrative only.

For nearby questions, the Price Volume Profit Scenario Simulator projects profit over months when demand responds to price, and the Quote Pricing & Deal Margin Optimizer prices one deal.

Validation and status logic

The workbook returns one status, chosen in this order: NOT VALID, then CHECK, then OK.

• NOT VALID names the first problem: a plan (a blank row above a used row, a missing, malformed or repeated ID, a billing type not on the list, a price, discount, opening count or share outside its limits or not in whole cents); no plan; a renewal row (a row for an empty plan, a used plan's row left blank, a share under an empty plan's column, or churn missing or outside its limits); a move between a monthly and an annual plan; a renewal row that does not add up to 100%; an acquisition month (a value outside its limits, or an entry after the horizon); shares of new subscribers that do not add up to 100%; a usage row; a scenario row; scenario weights that do not add up to 100%; or a setting outside its limits. Every figure is then 0.
• CHECK accompanies a valid result that needs a look because a workbook consistency check failed.
• OK otherwise.

Nothing is optimized or searched, so no other status can occur.

Warnings say when no new subscribers are entered, when a month has spend but no subscribers, when a cohort does not pay back, when a plan earns less a month than its usage cost, when no plan has churn, when churn reaches 100% under a multiplier, when all 100 trials are the same, when the what-if table is withheld, when opening annual contracts keep their price until renewal or renew after the horizon, and when recognized revenue is zero.

Assumptions and limitations

• Capacities are 3 plans, 12 acquisition months, 24 months of horizon, 5 usage categories and 5 churn scenarios.
• Subscribers move only between plans of the same billing type in this version.
• Subscriber counts are expected values, not whole people.
• There is no link between price and churn, or between spend and new subscribers: in a trial, spend stays as entered while new subscribers vary.
• Each trial uses one multiplier and one scenario for all months, so a run does not model a good month followed by a bad one.
• A bill counts as collected in its month. There are no receivables, taxes or payment fees.
• LTV stops at the horizon, so it is not comparable with a lifetime figure from a formula that assumes subscribers stay forever.

Restrictions and non-computing states

The calculator enforces its numeric and choice limits before it accepts a result. A blank row between used rows, a repeated ID, a renewal row that does not add up to 100% and shares that do not add up to 100% are refused by the workbook. With no target its share is left blank. With no new subscribers CAC, LTV and payback are left blank. When a table step would take the lowest row or column below 0, only the what-if table is withheld, with the reason; a multiplier of 0 always withholds it.

Errors and warnings

A request rejected by the page's input limits is not a computed result. A transport or service failure, a timeout or a cancelled run cannot establish a fresh workbook answer, and the last result stays on the page marked as out of date. Review the workbook's References and Disclaimer, and test a result against your own data before using it to set a price.

Sources and further reading

Your prices, discounts, subscribers, renewal shares, spend, usage costs and fixed cost come from the inputs; the calculator holds no market, industry or customer data, and every value is your own assumption. The sources below explain the ideas the model uses. They do not endorse this calculator.

• OpenStax, Principles of Accounting, Volume 1: Financial Accounting, 4.1 Explain the Concepts and Guidelines Affecting Adjusting Entries explains recording revenue when it is earned and not when the cash arrives, and unearned revenue for cash taken before the service is given, the idea behind the calculator's deferred balance (retrieved 2026-11-04).
• OpenStax, Principles of Accounting, Volume 2: Managerial Accounting, 3.1 Explain Contribution Margin defines contribution margin as the amount by which a selling price exceeds variable cost per unit; the calculator's contribution is recognized revenue less usage cost (retrieved 2026-11-04).
• Microsoft Support, Calculate multiple results by using a data table describes the two-variable data table the spreadsheet uses for the 11 by 11 what-if table (retrieved 2026-11-02).
• Park, S. K. and Miller, K. W. (1988), Random number generators: good ones are hard to find, Communications of the ACM 31(10) describes the multiplicative congruential generator with modulus 2^31 − 1 that draws the simulation's sign-up multipliers and churn scenarios (DOI checked 2026-11-02).

This is an educational model of the plan you enter, not financial, accounting, pricing or legal advice. It does not estimate how subscribers respond to a price, it claims no best price, it is not certified financial reporting, and it does not guarantee a profit; test a result against your own data before acting on it.